{"id":699,"date":"2026-02-13T19:44:33","date_gmt":"2026-02-13T19:44:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.apisbull.com\/blog\/?p=699"},"modified":"2026-02-13T19:44:33","modified_gmt":"2026-02-13T19:44:33","slug":"how-to-know-when-gold-has-peaked","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.apisbull.com\/blog\/?p=699","title":{"rendered":"How to Know When Gold Has Peaked"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

December 26, 2022 Gold Moon Indicator<\/strong> forecast that gold would rise from $1,753.50 per ounce<\/strong> (November 30, 2022) to at least $6,539.33 per ounce<\/strong> within approximately 36 months. Today, after 38+ months, gold stands at $5,000 per ounce<\/strong>… already validating the trajectory of that forecast.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We remain confident that gold will reach a minimum of $6,539.33 per ounce<\/strong> this cycle. The only uncertainty is timing. Importantly, the January 1980 high of $850 per ounce… adjusted for M2 money supply per capita… now equates to approximately $8,478 per ounce<\/strong>, which provides a historically grounded reference point for this cycle\u2019s upside potential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY)<\/strong> currently trades near 97<\/strong>, roughly in line with its 59-year average. However, the long-term structure of the DXY remains decisively bearish… a pattern of lower highs<\/strong> followed by lower lows<\/strong>. We believe the DXY is likely to break below its March 2008 all-time low of 70.70<\/strong> in the years ahead. When that occurs, gold prices<\/strong> will be significantly higher. In our view, this gold<\/strong> bull market<\/strong> does not end until the DXY makes new structural lows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To suppress gold meaningfully from reaching inflation-adjusted levels near $8,478 per ounce<\/strong>, the Federal Reserve would likely need to engineer extreme tightening<\/strong> similar to 1979\u20131981<\/strong>… pushing the Fed Funds Rate<\/strong> into the 11%\u201319% range<\/strong>. Only at such levels, where rates materially exceed inflation, would gold face structural pressure. Ironically, that would likely mark the ideal entry point for long-duration Treasuries such as the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT)<\/strong>… after gold peaks and real rates turn decisively positive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, positioning data continues to support the thesis that precious metals are far from bubble territory. It is highly likely that GLD, SLV, GDX, and GDXJ<\/strong> will see shares outstanding rise to new all-time highs<\/strong> over the next 12\u201324 months. Ownership of gold and silver ETFs remains historically low relative to equity exposure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The contrast with Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)<\/strong> is striking. Between February 8, 2016 and October 14, 2020, VOO attracted $72.043 billion<\/strong> in cumulative flows… less than double the $39.199 billion<\/strong> that flowed into the six major gold\/silver ETFs (GLD, SLV, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

From October 14, 2020 through today, VOO has absorbed $395.55 billion<\/strong>… more than 93 times<\/strong> the $4.249 billion<\/strong> that flowed into those same precious-metal ETFs over that period.

That is not diversification. That is concentration.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many adherents of the \u201cFIRE Movement\u201d have been conditioned to allocate aggressively into VOO<\/strong> regardless of valuation. Enterprise value\/revenue multiples for companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, and Microsoft<\/strong> have expanded dramatically, yet the default advice remains: \u201ckeep buying.\u201d

Ironically, gold<\/strong> has been outperforming VOO<\/strong>… but suggesting diversification into precious metals often triggers hostility<\/strong> rather than analysis. The real systemic risk is not gold collapsing… it is over-concentration<\/strong> in passive U.S. equities<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a significant percentage of Americans \u201cretire early\u201d based primarily on equity gains without corresponding productive reinvestment, that creates structural fragility… particularly as China<\/strong> remains highly competitive<\/strong> in AI development<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Looking forward, we expect meaningful volatility in the S&P 500<\/strong>. Even under a best-case scenario of modest continued gains, a declining DXY environment historically favors foreign markets. We favor the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ)<\/strong> among broad exposures, and in Asia, companies such as Trio-Tech International (TRT)<\/strong> with rapid AI-driven revenue growth<\/strong> may offer asymmetric upside potential<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

History also offers perspective. Gold\u2019s last bull market<\/strong> stalled<\/strong> in September 2011 partly because high-quality equities<\/strong> were historically cheap. For example, Microsoft (MSFT)<\/strong> traded in 2011\u20132012 at a free cash flow to enterprise value yield<\/strong> of 15%\u201318%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On October 28, Microsoft\u2019s free cash flow yield<\/strong> bottomed at a 26-year low of 1.77%<\/strong>, and currently sits near 2.50%<\/strong>… levels comparable to March 2000. Notably, Microsoft did not surpass its March 2000 share price until 16+ years later<\/strong>, in August 2016.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If AI<\/strong> becomes commoditized<\/strong>, it won’t hurt<\/strong> TRT\u2019s margins<\/strong>, which are likely to improve significantly<\/strong>. By contrast, Microsoft<\/strong> faces margin pressure risk<\/strong> if inference costs remain high and enterprise customers resist paying AI premiums… particularly as its cloud business transitions from hyper-growth to maturity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Finally, consider corporate behavior. We attempted to cancel Adobe<\/strong> after ceasing use of its services, only to discover we were locked into a long-term contract buried in fine print. That experience reinforces our view that Adobe\u2019s recent decline does not necessarily represent value. In our assessment, Adobe<\/strong> would need to fall another<\/strong> 50%\u201375%<\/strong>… while our gold\/silver equities<\/strong> rise substantially<\/strong>… before we would consider it attractively priced.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

December 26, 2022 Gold Moon Indicator forecast that gold would rise from $1,753.50 per ounce (November 30, 2022) to at least $6,539.33 per ounce within approximately 36 months. Today, after 38+ months, gold stands at $5,000 per ounce… already validating the trajectory of that forecast. We remain confident that gold will reach a minimum of $6,539.33 per ounce this cycle. The only uncertainty is timing. … <\/p>\n

Continue reading “How to Know When Gold Has Peaked”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-699","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commodities"],"yoast_head":"\nHow to Know When Gold Has Peaked - Apis Bull Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.apisbull.com\/blog\/?p=699\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How to Know When Gold Has Peaked - Apis Bull Blog\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"December 26, 2022 Gold Moon Indicator forecast that gold would rise from $1,753.50 per ounce (November 30, 2022) to at least $6,539.33 per ounce within approximately 36 months. 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